ANALYSIS
I know most eyes are glued to the presidential circus and the Senate tug-of-war happening in maybe four or five states. However, there are hundreds of other races that will also be decided at the same time. While many of these other races are flying under the radar, some of them deserve attention put on them as well. So, let’s look at a few of those interesting races and why folks may want to pay attention to them.
The Regularly Scheduled Nebraska Senate Race (AKA The Nebraska Senate Race That’s Actually Interesting)
I’m going to let you all in on a little secret. I was asked in May what race I was paying attention to that I thought other people were missing. I picked this one. Hence why I’m starting here with it.
Incumbent Senator Deb Fischer is facing off against independent labor leader Dan Osborn. The Democratic Party of Nebraska isn’t even bothering to field their own candidate in this race, and Osborn rejected their endorsement. What intrigued me about this race is that the labor movement has been flexing its muscle lately and I was curious if that could translate into electoral success outside of the major political parties.
Fischer first won the seat in 2012 by 16 percentage points and then won re-election by about 20 in 2018. In both races, her main challenger was a Democrat. Despite this previous success, and despite the historic challenges third party candidates face in America, Fischer is surprisingly running neck and neck with Osborn, with about 10% of voters undecided (compared to about 4% in the Harris Vs Trump match up). Originally, Republicans thought they had this race won comfortably and were not putting money into it. But recently, Republican aligned groups have begun contributing money due to concerns Fischer may be in danger.
For a lot of reasons (those pesky undecided voters in particular who tend to break late against the party in the White House) I would not be surprised if Fischer ends up winning in November, but for perhaps the first time in her career Fischer has a real electoral challenge on her hands and it’s not from a Democrat. Considering how closely divided the senate is expected to be, this race may matter a lot for which party controls that chamber.
Alaska’s At-Large Congressional Race
Alaska’s electoral system is an interesting mix between an open primary, where the top four finishers move on to the general election regardless of their party affiliation, and a general election which utilizes ranked choice voting. When Mary Peltola first won Alaska’s at-large congressional race this system drew a lot of ire from those on the losing side.
Running for re-election this time, Mary Peltola managed to snag 51% of the primary vote and her electoral strength no longer seems to be a surprise. But her competition for the general election this time is…weird. The third and fourth-place finishers of the primary this year, both Republicans, dropped out leaving Peltola to face Republican Nick Begich (again), an Alaskan Independence Party candidate, and a random Democratic Party challenger who placed sixth (who doesn’t even live in the state and is apparently in jail). This is going to be a close race due the Republican Party being able to fully coalesce around Begich this time as opposed to being spit across two Republican candidates and an uncommon electoral system, making it worth keeping an eye on. It’s entirely possible control of the House comes down to this race.
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District
In 2022, Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez scored a surprising upset over Republican Joe Kent by less than a percentage point to win this Republican-leaning congressional seat. Joe Kent himself was a surprise opponent for Gluesenkamp Perez as he came in second over the incumbent, more moderate, Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler in Washington’s “top two” primary. Yes, another unusual electoral system (Are you noticing a pattern?). Washington’s primary system is sort of like Alaska’s, except for it’s a final two instead of a final four system and no ranked choice voting general election.
This year it’s a rematch between Gluesenkamp Perez and Kent, who again finished second ahead of a more moderate Republican opponent in the primary, with polling showing a razor thin race. Gluesenkamp Perez has cultivated a moderate, blue collar focused, image. She also frequently breaks with the Biden administration and her fellow Democrats on policies. Whether that will be enough to put Gluesenkamp Perez over the top in November will be worth keeping an eye on. It seems likely this one will come down to a few hundred or thousand votes again and like above could be the difference maker for who controls the House.
Arizona’s Sixth Congressional District
Why is this race interesting? Because Arizona’s sixth district contains my hometown!
Ok, while that’s true it’s actually interesting because it’s a rematch (yes, another rematch…) from a highly competitive race in 2022, which Republican Juan Ciscomani won by 1.5 percentage points over Democrat Kirsten Engel. It’s also a relatively new district made up of parts of previous districts (the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to be clear) and makes for an unpredictable electorate.
In only congressional election of this district so far, 2022, Engel actually overperformed what we would have expected given the tilt of the district, suggesting some possible strength going into 2024. There is also a fun twist this year in the form of a Libertarian Party candidate, which the 2022 match up didn’t feature. In Arizona congressional races, if Libertarians run, they usually pull a couple of percentage points, which could really matter in such a close race. Plus, this year due to the presidential election and Arizona’s status, the district is being inundated with political advertising. Considering all this, it’s been rated a “tossup” seat by most observers and another one that could decide who controls the House.
New Hampshire Gubernatorial Race
New Hampshire is always a little quirky, politically speaking. While the state has leaned Democratic in recent presidential and Senate races, its state offices tend to tilt Republican. Further, Republican Chris Sununu has held the governorship there for eight years, first winning his election in 2016 when New Hampshire voted for Democrats Hilary Clinton for president and Maggie Hassan for senator. Like I said…quirky.
The race for governor this year features the former Republican senator from New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte (who lost to Hassan in 2016) running against former Democrat Mayor of Manchester New Hampshire Joyce Craig. Both candidates won competitive primaries for the honor of facing each other. New Hampshire is currently looking like it will go for Vice President Kamala Harris, but the Governor’s race seems to be a tossup. Further, it’s the first time the New Hampshire governor’s race is between two women candidates. For all these reasons, I think this is a race worth paying more attention to.
Wrapping Up
There you have it—five races that deserve way more attention than they’re getting. Did I miss one that you think is particularly interesting? Drop it in the comments, and let’s geek out over elections together.
And remember: get out and vote!
Thanks for reading.