COMMENTARY
It's the week of July 21st, and if you're tuned into American politics, there are just a FEW things that have happened recently that have been described as “unprecedented” in just the past few weeks. As WWE Champion Cody Rhodes might say, "So, whataya wanna talk about?"
I know what I want to talk about. Imagine the shock of many when President Biden, with all the power of the presidency behind him, was gently but firmly shown the exit door—not by his own volition, but by the Democratic Party itself. In a political landscape where recent parties often seem powerless over their nominees this move is nothing short of incredible. To put it bluntly, as a political scientist, I’m flabbergasted to see a political party actually flex its metaphorical muscles and demonstrate organizational strength in 2024.
This action stands in stark contrast to the Republican Party's experience in 2016, when party leaders were unable to prevent Donald Trump from becoming their nominee, despite considerable opposition. By 2020, Trump had solidified his control over the GOP, a transformation that has only deepened by 2024. The GOP's platform has shifted so dramatically that it scarcely resembles the pre-Trump era, highlighting the vulnerability of weak parties to takeovers by strong personalities. Also, remember President Obama’s “insurgent" campaign in 2008? It completely upended the Democratic nomination process, showing that party elite control may have been waning. A similarly shocking result for Democrats nearly occurred 2016 with Senator Bernie Sanders.
Political scientists have discussed our current era as "weak parties, strong partisanship," where despite fervent partisan identities, the actual power of party organizations has waned dramatically. Americans, interestingly, hold strong partisan identities but also express significant dislike for political parties, including their own. Basically, the primary system, which replaced the opaque "smoke-filled rooms" of yesteryear with a more transparent but fragmented process, has eroded party control over nominations. This has been referred to as the “hollowing out” of the parties.
Instead of an organized party, “networks of policy demanders”—interest groups and lobbyists— have dominated the process and compete openly to sway the public and get their preferred candidates the nomination. While voters have their say, these networks provide crucial funding and organization, which are essential for voter outreach efforts and impact voter decision making. Instead of a strong party system that organizes stable, logical, and lasting coalitions into “heuristics” that help voters make decisions, we've seen feeding frenzies, chaos, and a decline in the quality of political candidates. In short, it’s been less the party deciding than special interests have, or occasionally, bandwagoning where the party has come in after the primaries to rally around a candidate after the brutal frenzy is over.
In 2024, the Democratic Party defied modern political norms by asserting its authority in an unprecedented way. Historically, both the Democratic and Republican parties have been seen as weak, lacking the cohesion and control to decisively influence their nominees once primary elections are underway, largely due to the shift towards a candidate-centric system influenced by interest groups, lobbyists, and public opinion. However, this trend was disrupted when the Democratic Party's leadership perceived President Biden as a liability following his poor debate performance at the end of June, which highlighted concerns about his age and cognitive health. In a bold move reminiscent of what Mitch McConnell and other Republican leaders attempted, but failed to do, with President Trump in 2016, Democratic Party elites mobilized swiftly and decisively, reflecting a return to a more traditional reflection of party control.
In retrospect, Biden should not have been surprised by how this went down, and maybe I shouldn’t be either. There were hints of the potential for Democratic Party leadership strength in 2020, which benefited President Biden. Democratic Party leaders stepped in to consolidate support around Biden during the chaotic 2020 primaries, deciding he was their best candidate to beat President Trump. Fast forward to 2024, and the same leadership decided that Biden was no longer the best candidate to lead them to victory. They brought the full weight of the party’s social and financial power down on him, forcing his withdrawal from the race before they got even more aggressive and public with their appeals. The Party giveth, the Party taketh away.
On top of the Democratic Party pressuring President Biden to withdraw, party leaders also quickly coordinated around putting Vice President Harris forward as the party’s candidate. President Biden endorsed Harris immediately, followed by other party elites, Biden administration officials, and even potential challengers for the nomination such as Governors JB Pritzker, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, and Josh Shapiro. Instead of the chaos many Democrats thought might happen if Biden were to withdraw, we’ve seen a remarkable lack of challengers, to the point that Vice President Harris collected enough delegates to secure the nomination and received the backing of some of the post powerful labor unions within 36 hours of President Biden withdrawing.
In a political era where the major parties have struggled to exert control, the Democratic Party's recent actions in their presidential nomination process represent a dramatic reassertion of power. They saw a need for change and acted decisively, demonstrating that, at least for now, the party's leadership is willing to do whatever it takes to increase their odds of a win in November. This bold move not only reshapes the 2024 election landscape by denying President Trump’s campaign the typical post-convention media coverage and polling bounce, but also forces his campaign to scramble their strategy, right after locking in their VP nominee and the major attack points of their campaign. We also have seen the Democratic Party step in when it comes to New Jersey Democratic Senator Bob Menedez, forcing his resignation and ensuring they would not be fielding a felon for his current senate seat.
As we look ahead, there is hope that this reassertion of party control could lead to more organized, stable, and effective governance. Perhaps this marks the start of a period where political parties can once again serve as reliable entities that help guide the nation through its challenges as opposed to sideshow circuses that draw the frustration and contempt from American voters tired of the dysfunction. I’m not sure how optimistic I am about all that, but for my fellow American voters who desire a functioning government, I hope so.
