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On Deck: Who'll Step Up to the Plate as the State's Next Political Leaders?

Democrats
WUIS/Illinois Issues

As Rod Blagojevich proved, political farm teams — where future leaders grow while they await their shot at the big leagues — can comprise little-known rookies who soar to prominence quickly and unexpectedly. In 2002 when he ran for governor, then-U.S. Rep. Blagojevich was familiar to residents of the 5th Congressional District on Chicago’s northwest side. But few outside his district knew him or had even heard of him.

Back then, Blagojevich may not have been included on a list of up-and-coming political leaders. Yet there he stood, the Democratic nominee for governor, who went on to beat Attorney General Jim Ryan in the general election. Four years later, Blagojevich won the governor’s race again. He demonstrated that taking inventory of rising political leaders is an exercise in variables. Today’s luminary might be tomorrow’s disappointment. Tomorrow’s superstar might be today’s unknown.

For Illinois Republicans, the roll call of future leaders is thin. Republicans have not recovered from the federal corruption trial of former Gov. George Ryan and the subsequent collapse of a party built around him. Ten years ago, Republicans commanded four statewide offices, including the governor’s mansion. They held a majority in the state Senate. And they unexpectedly tossed an incumbent Democrat, Carol Moseley Braun, from her U.S. Senate perch, replacing her with Republican Peter Fitzgerald. Instead of growing young, vibrant leaders, Republicans allowed a shadow government of power-brokers, such as businessmen William Cellini of Springfield and Robert Kjellander, Illinois’ GOP committeeman representing the Republican National Committee, to sink their roots instead.

Republicans
WUIS/Illinois Issues
Republicans

  As a result, the party’s only bragging rights have been a few upset victories in the General Assembly. Republicans lost every statewide post to the Democrats, ceded control of the state Senate and lost an open U.S. Senate race in 2004 to Barack Obama when Fitzgerald opted for retirement. That same year, Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean ousted 33-year GOP incumbent Phil Crane. This year, Bill Foster, a Democratic newcomer, seized the near-sacred GOP borough of former U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert. 

“We are rebuilding,” says state Rep. Tom Cross of Oswego, who leads Republicans in the Illinois House. “We’ve had our struggles, but we’re on the rebound, and I think there is a lot of enthusiasm among grassroots Republicans. They don’t like being down, and so they’re committed to working very hard to change that.”

Rebuilding strength and confidence in the Republican Party will require the due diligence of a strong bench. To whom will the party turn? 

Meanwhile, the Democrats’ stable of up-and-comers remains strong — if only the old guard would get out of the way. Potential detriment to Democratic candidates comes from a proclivity for self-destruction among the party’s standard-bearers: a beyond-repair personal feud between Blagojevich and House Speaker Michael Madigan; a state budget grounded by inertia; and the potential for Republican candidates to capitalize on it. A new leader may emerge when Senate Democrats choose a replacement for President Emil Jones Jr., who announced his upcoming retirement last month, but so far Democrats have proved one-party rule doesn’t work well. 

For Republicans, U.S. Reps. Peter Roskam of Wheaton and Mark Kirk 
of Highland Park carry increasing influence within the party hierarchy. The retirements of Hastert and U.S. Reps. Jerry Weller of Morris and Ray LaHood of Peoria set off alarm bells within the GOP congressional delegation. The Democrats hope to pick up at least one of those seats; they are wagering on Debbie Halvorson of Crete, the Illinois Senate’s majority leader, who is running in Weller’s district.

Neither Roskam nor Kirk, however, can devote significant time to statewide party-building. They are optimistic about being re-elected in November but are tethered to their own campaigns for now. Roskam faces Jill Morgenthaler, who served two years as Illinois’ Homeland Security adviser. Kirk is running against Dan Seals, a consultant who came close to knocking Kirk out in 2006. 

To re-establish itself, the Illinois Republican Party needs to be visionary, Roskam says.

“We need to be casting a vision that is more than, ‘We’re not the Democrats,’” he says. “Sen. Obama has been very silent about his Illinois connections and all the things that are going on that are unpleasant, and there’s a reason for that. It’s because a lot of Illinois voters are really fed up with the nonsense they see coming out of Cook County and Springfield. In order to regain people’s confidence, you don’t whine your way back into the majority.”

Kirk often is mentioned as potential gubernatorial material, although for now, he remains focused on Washington, D.C. His resume as a Naval Reserve intelligence officer who served combat missions in Iraq, Haiti and Bosnia have shaped him into a go-to spokesman on national defense and foreign policy. He co-chairs the Tuesday Group, a caucus of moderate Republicans that recently established a fundraising arm. 

“As of this moment, I don’t see anyone who can raise the kind of money and have the backing to compete for governor, except for maybe Kirk,” says Paul Green, professor of policy studies at Roosevelt University in Chicago. 

“I just don’t see anyone else. The party has no one. I recently looked at the list of GOP delegates to the national convention, and I don’t know most of them — and I’ve been around a long time.”

Green’s advice for the GOP? Recruit someone like Paul Vallas who ran for governor on the Democratic ticket in 2002. Vallas would struggle in a crowded Democratic primary but might consider crossing the aisle to run again. Vallas is overseeing the New Orleans school district. He maintained an Illinois residence, however, and has not ruled out a future in politics.

Republicans in Illinois also are looking to Aaron Schock, a 26-year-old whiz kid from Peoria who was elected to the General Assembly in 2004 while serving simultaneously as president of the Peoria School Board. After just three years in the Illinois House, he is asking voters for a promotion. Schock is the GOP nominee for LaHood’s 18th Congressional District seat, facing Democrat Colleen Callahan. Charismatic and focused, he established his first retirement savings account at the age of 14 and bought real estate when he was only 18 years old. 

“There are no limits for him,” Cross says. “He’s a hard worker. He’s politically savvy and astute. He’s a fairly conservative guy, but he doesn’t grate on those who aren’t. Our party has been lacking in effective, strong young people — a farm team — but he represents what that’s all about.”

While Cross has been approached several times to run statewide or for Congress, he says he enjoys his current role as Republican House leader too much to give it up. Redistricting in 2010 could give Republicans the chance to pick up seats from the Democrats, who hold a 67-51 seat advantage in the House. If the stars align for Republicans, Cross is positioned for House speaker-in-waiting. He’s willing to hang on. 

“Do I think about other things? Sure,” he says. “But redistricting is right around the corner, and there is a complete meltdown by the Democrats in Springfield right now. It sounds presumptuous to say, ‘I’d like to be speaker,’ but I do think there is potential for Republicans to have the House. It’s not going to happen this election — it would probably take a couple elections — but it’s something I would certainly be working toward.”

Meanwhile, the Democrats boast a thick roster of up-and-comers, headlined by Obama and including U.S. Reps. Rahm Emanuel and Jesse Jackson Jr., Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and a freshman Chicago alderman, Brendan Reilly, who scrapped with Chicago Mayor Richard Daley over Daley’s decision to relocate a children’s museum. Also on the list: Comptroller Dan Hynes, U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean, state Veterans’ Affairs Director Tammy Duckworth and a handful of state lawmakers jostling for slots on the statewide ticket.

“It’s almost an embarrassment of riches for the Democrats,” says Chris Mooney, professor of political science with the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “It’s a question of how do they sort themselves out?”

Madigan is mum on her plans for 2010, saying only that she is focused on Obama’s presidential campaign for now. But the table is being set for higher office. Her political operation, Citizens for Lisa Madigan, raised $854,000 in cash and in-kind contributions during the last six months of 2007. She hired a political director, Novia Pagone. And she is tackling a broad assortment of issues as attorney general that would parlay nicely into an executive bid: She pursued the makers of dangerous children’s toys; went after international lending giants accused of preying on home buyers; and cracked down on methamphetamine suppliers. 

She also spoiled the fast-tracked relocation of a casino for suburban Rosemont. She joined in the nationwide prosecution of several pharmaceutical giants, and she argued a case before the U.S. Supreme Court. 

To round out her resume, Madigan can showcase Exhibit A: a nifty letter from Chicago-based U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald, thanking her for sidelining her office’s investigation into the hiring practices of the Blagojevich administration. Fitzgerald requested she step aside so that federal authorities could take the lead. Madigan agreed and then released a glowing letter from Fitzgerald, complimenting her teamwork. That 2006 exchange, best known for Fitzgerald’s reference to “endemic hiring fraud” within state government, would neutralize questions about Madigan’s integrity and independence from the Democratic political machine, should she run for governor. Praise, in writing, from the state’s top corruption fighter is pure gold for someone in her position. 

“I’m having a hard time thinking of someone better. She’s just got the package,” Mooney says. “Women are hot property all over the country. They’re being elected as governors, senators. Imagine the ticket in 2010 if she runs. It’ll be a few guys in suits — and her.”

Treasurer Giannoulias is less likely to run for governor if Lisa Madigan decides to get in the race, but barring any missteps, he is prepping for higher office as well. After all, he already thumped one of the most ruthless, practiced politicians in Illinois: Speaker Madigan, who also is state Democratic Party chairman, as well as Lisa Madigan’s father. 

Giannoulias faced a Madigan-backed treasurer candidate in the 2006 primary, Paul Mangieri. Giannoulias beat him, despite hardball from the speaker, who was on a mission to sink Giannoulias’ candidacy. Speaker Madigan pressured numerous Giannoulias backers to withdraw their support; some elected officials begged to have their names removed from an endorsement list on Giannoulias’ Web site, fearing retaliation from the speaker.

Together, Giannoulias, Madigan and Hynes are positioned for promotion. So is U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., a Chicago Democrat who has spent more than a decade in Congress. He interjects just enough in state and local politics to keep a strong presence. He has clashed with Daley and Blagojevich over corruption and airport issues. Recently, Jackson Jr. lambasted his own father, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, for derogatory remarks he made about Obama. 

Jackson’s tendency to be a loner, however, also hurts his ability to build cohesion around his candidacy. He rankled members of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by roundly criticizing Halvorson over an airport bill this summer. Halvorson is competing for the 11th Congressional District seat, right next door to Jackson’s 2nd District. She didn’t need the bad press, Democratic officials complained. 

Electing Halvorson to Congress is among the many duties of U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, who is credited with turning the House back to Democratic control and propelling Nancy Pelosi to the speaker’s podium in 2006. Emanuel helps guide the Democratic House agenda while raising money for candidates such as Halvorson. He isn’t interested in returning to state politics — a popular political blog recently speculated he wants to be U.S. House speaker — but his clout in the nation’s capital qualifies him as a star player for Illinois Democrats. 

Both parties are taking early steps to line up their statewide tickets for 2010. Summer golf outings are in full swing. Conversations are under way. Two Senate Republicans, Bill Brady of Bloomington and Christine Radogno of Lemont, expressed interest in running for governor, along with Ron Gidwitz, a businessman and former state schools official who ran in 2006. State Rep. Dan Rutherford, U.S. Rep. John Shimkus and Senate Republican Leader Frank Watson help moor the party, as well. 

But could any of them beat the yet-to-be-determined Democratic statewide ticket? And what if Blagojevich runs again?

“I wouldn’t count him out,” professor Green says. “The politics of Illinois are less of a disaster than the government of Illinois, so whoever wins is going to face the biggest problems this state has faced since 1932.”

Maybe that person isn’t even on the list yet. Politics is a game of unknowns, after all. 

“Someone could emerge two years from now and we go, ‘Wow. This is really a quality person.’ Things have a way of working themselves out,” says Cross. “Look at Rod. Look at Aaron Schock. There is opportunity out there for that person, whoever it may be.”

Kristen McQueary is a political writer for the SouthtownStar newspaper, which covers the south and southwest suburbs of Chicago. 

Illinois Issues, September 2008

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