President Trump muscled a 900-page package through a closely divided Congress — and that might have been the easy part.
The tax and policy bill, which Trump dubbed the "One Big Beautiful Bill," encompasses much of his second-term agenda. Trump managed to sign it by his own deadline of the Fourth of July.
"We had so much in there that no matter who you are, there was something in that bill that would make your congressman or your senator — or your congresswoman, much more importantly — raise their hand in support," he said at the White House signing ceremony, referring in part to Alaska Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski's crucial swing vote.
But while passing the law was a key legislative victory, the president and congressional Republicans could face challenges when selling the package to voters.
"It is absolutely upside-down. More people dislike it than like it," said Frank Luntz, a pollster who has helped Republicans with messaging. "The Republicans focused on process — 'Get it done. Get it to my desk by July 4 so I can sign it' — rather than explaining why this is good for hardworking taxpayers."
The package fulfills several of Trump's campaign promises: making many of his 2017 tax cuts permanent, adding provisions for no tax on tips and overtime, and increasing spending on immigration enforcement and the military. But its cost-saving provisions are expected to boot millions of people from health coverage and food assistance, and the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that it will add $3.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.
White House officials argue that individual components of the law would be popular if people understood them. Luntz agrees. But if Republicans can't make that pitch stick, he said, they are going to have a problem in the midterms next year. Trump did highlight elements of the law during a Cabinet meeting this week that was carried live on cable. But he also spent 15 minutes discussing the decor in the room.
Ron Bonjean, a Republican communications consultant, said Trump has his job cut out for him.
"He's going to have to repeat the benefits of the bill over and over and over and over again, which is primarily, 'I made sure your taxes didn't go up,'" Bonjean said, adding that such repetition is generally one of Trump's strong suits.
That emphasis is needed because the bulk of the tax cuts in this bill are actually an extension of lower rates that have been in place since 2018. About 80% of American families saw their tax bill reduced when the initial cuts were passed in Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. But for the majority of taxpayers, the savings weren't big enough to be obvious, said Vanessa Williamson, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution.
"At the end of the year, people are looking at their refunds. They're not thinking about whether over the course of the year, 10 bucks here or there was different," Williamson said.
This isn't a new phenomenon: During the George W. Bush administration, the government sent $300 rebate checks to people's homes, but it didn't take long for voters to forget about them, said Williamson. When tax cuts passed early in the Obama administration, many voters actually thought their taxes had gone up. But Williamson said this package may be even harder to sell.
"One of the things that's really unusual about the bill this year, unlike the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and unlike the Bush tax cuts before, this time they tied tax cuts to spending cuts, and those are cuts that will affect everyday people," Williamson said.
Democrats have been driving that message for weeks: that this is a law that will benefit the wealthy at the expense of the working class.
A Congressional Budget Office analysis found that the United States' highest-paid workers are expected to be the biggest winners under the package, while middle-income families would see smaller gains and those at the bottom of the income ladder would be worse off.
This law is like "trying to give people a bill for their own robbery," said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist. "There is no way to convince people that it is a good idea to raise costs for health care, energy and food to give tax breaks to people who are already wealthy."
Democratic groups are already running ads about the One Big Beautiful Bill and plan to make highlighting its downsides the centerpiece of their effort to win back Congress next year.
Trump is already trying to counter the criticism. Moments before signing the bill into law, Trump said, "And I just want you to know, if you see anything negative put out by Democrats, it's all a con job."
In an interview with NBC's Kristen Welker Thursday, Trump said he would be hitting the road "a little bit" to promote his bill, but he added, "Honestly, it's been received so well I don't think I have to."
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