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The GOP megabill could cost trillions, putting focus on fiscal conservatism rhetoric

AILSA CHANG, HOST:

At the center of the big, ugly split between President Trump and Elon Musk is the cost of the President's signature domestic policy bill. The GOP mega bill is estimated to add trillions to the deficit, and that's putting new focus on Republicans and their rhetoric about fiscal conservatism. NPR congressional correspondent Claudia Grisales has more.

CLAUDIA GRISALES, BYLINE: In the fight for GOP fiscal restraint, Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie is often one of the last men standing on Capitol Hill.

THOMAS MASSIE: Because I'm the only one who'll speak the truth.

GRISALES: The longtime fiscal hawk wears a smart badge on his suit pocket that tracks the national debt live.

MASSIE: The time I don't wear it here in D.C. is when I'm sleeping.

GRISALES: Last month, Massie was the only House Republican to vote against his party's massive spending package. And that debt clock, which now sits at more than $36 trillion, explains why.

MASSIE: So what's going to happen if the Big Beautiful Bill passes is my debt badge will take a jump up.

GRISALES: The GOP would extend the tax cuts passed during President Trump's first term, while also spending big on immigration, defense and other party priorities. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the plan will add $2.4 trillion to deficits over the next decade. Republicans argue the analysis ignores the economic growth they expect the bill to generate. That pushback aside, some experts say deficit spending is a familiar tune for the GOP.

DAVE HOPKINS: The party tends to enact major tax cuts that aren't balanced out by spending cuts.

GRISALES: That's Boston College politics professor, Dave Hopkins. He says being a fiscal conservative is much easier in the minority, since that just means attacking Democrats on spending. But it's more complicated in the majority, where he says the GOP has a history of overspending.

HOPKINS: It was true in the Nixon era. It was true in the Reagan era. It was true in George W. Bush's time, and it's once again true in the Donald Trump era.

GRISALES: Kentucky Senator Rand Paul agrees the majority party often forgets about fiscal restraint, so he plans to vote against the Senate measure because it would approve an extra $4 trillion in repayment on debt the government already owes.

RAND PAUL: When your party's in charge, some people fall away and just want to support whatever sort of the team is doing as opposed to remembering the primary problem really is the debt.

GRISALES: Republicans have shown a new appetite for raising the debt ceiling. When Congress last raised it two years ago, 71 House Republicans voted no. Last month, virtually all voted to support the move, with Massie as a lone exception. A big reason for the switch? - President Trump, who isn't known for fiscal restraint. Last month, he praised a Massachusetts Democratic senator for calling to eliminate the debt limit altogether.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: I agree with Elizabeth Warren on that. I think you should get rid of it. It's too catastrophic.

GRISALES: Hopkins says Trump has drawn new GOP voters less motivated by the size of the government and more focused on cultural issues. But that creates a new challenge. To pay for the bill, Republicans are looking to cut back on programs used by many in their new base - programs like Medicaid, the joint federal state health care program for low-income, elderly and disabled Americans. According to Congress' scorekeeper, the bill could force an estimated 11 million to lose their health coverage.

HOPKINS: To what extent are the Republicans risking alienating many of their new constituencies if they pursue cuts to programs that those constituencies tend to favor and to some extent directly benefit from?

GRISALES: It's a question that could help decide the country's fiscal outlook, as well as whether Republicans will stay in power. Claudia Grisales, NPR News, the Capitol.

(SOUNDBITE OF J DILLA'S "REQUIEM WITH ALLAN BARNES") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Claudia Grisales is a congressional reporter assigned to NPR's Washington Desk.