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Campaign Lifelines: Downstate Democrats swim in increasingly conservative waters

State Rep. Kurt Granberg spells out one theme in this election season: "I feel like the island is sinking and there are sharks in the water."

Granberg is a 19-year incumbent Democrat representing a House district bound by three Republican-controlled districts. The state GOP hopes to take his seat on November 7, and it smells blood.

He made his own assessment in August while sitting outside a corner grocery that faces cornfields near his Carlyle home. Sweaty from four hours of campaigning door-to-door in a predominantly Republican village in Clinton County, he put a white towel over his shoulder. But Granberg, soaked from the 102-degree heat index, wasn't sweating the Republicans' campaign. "They can't beat me on the issues, so they're going to throw everything they can at me, including the kitchen sink."

About 300 miles north along the eight-lane highways of suburban Cook County, a 21-year incumbent Republican appears to be in the same boat. Rep. Terry Parke of Hoffman Estates represents an increasingly diverse area, but he said coolly in July that he's not worried either because his voters know him.

Still, Parke and Granberg provide tempting bait for opposing parties in races that could narrow Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan's 65-53 margin in a majority that party has held for 21 out of the last 23 years.

Over in the Senate, three incumbent seats in the northwest suburbs are considered potential catches for opposing parties. They include Republican freshman Sen. Cheryl Axley of Mount Prospect and Democratic Sen. Terry Link of Vernon Hills, his party's caucus chair. 

Two other candidates for that chamber, Republican Suzanne Simpson and Democrat Michael Bond, both of Grayslake, are running for the seat vacated by longtime Sen. Adeline Geo-Karis, a Zion Republican. 

Legislative leaders from both parties often target such open seats, helping their respective candidates with advice and cash. The Senate has five seats up for grabs. Senate Minority Leader Frank Watson of Greenville would need to win all of them to overturn Democratic Senate President Emil Jones' 32-27 majority. The House has four open seats in this election. House Minority Leader Tom Cross of Oswego would need to win them all and oust eight incumbents for control of that chamber.

A second tier of targets for both parties includes those incumbents, like Granberg and Parke, whose districts are changing. Political analysts say the Chicago suburbs have become precarious for Republicans, while downstate districts have become precarious for Democrats. For the GOP, that means attracting the increasingly diverse population northwest of Chicago. For Democrats, that means satisfying an increasingly conservative and frustrated blue-collar constituency that has watched jobs relocate to nonunionized regions of the world.

Political scientist John Jackson of Southern Illinois University says the national decline in industrial jobs has weakened union representation and, thus, Democratic power downstate.

"The loss of United Mine Workers' strength in central and southern Illinois is absolutely critical," he says. "People who were strong-minded mine workers are now out of work, or [have] moved somewhere else or retired."

Conventional wisdom says constituents who used to vote consistently with their unions are now finding political guidance elsewhere, including culturally conservative church groups.

Issues such as gun control, abortion  and gay marriage have always polarized downstate and Chicagoland voters, but regional battles over acquiring state resources for economic development have historically left the state politically divided, as well.

That often puts downstate Democrats in survival mode by voting in line with culturally conservative beliefs but supporting typically Democratic union interests, Jackson says. The litmus test for whether Democrats can surmount the southern wave of conservatism — and escape a perception that legislative Democrats favor Chicago — may well be House District 107.

That southern district includes the rural counties of Clinton, Marion, Jefferson and a bit of Fayette. Positioned halfway between the Missouri and Indiana borders, the region historically has relied on agriculture, mining and oil, state prisons and tourism for survival. 

But in recent decades, the economy has shrunk. Granberg has represented the district through a few factory closings.

Citing the economy, and his vote to protect against discrimination based on sexual orientation, the state GOP argues Granberg has lost touch with his district.

Republicans also are hoping to build on momentum gained during a close race in 2002, when they slated John Cavaletto to challenge Granberg. Four years ago, 

Cavaletto, a retired educator, secured about 45.3 percent of the vote compared to Granberg's 54.7 percent. They will face off again this year.

So far, Cavaletto has followed the state Republican strategy, arguing voters are fed up with one-party control that benefits Chicago and ignores southern Illinois. He's getting support from House GOP Leader Cross and other area Republicans, Reps. Mike Bost of Murphysboro, Bill Mitchell of Forsyth and David Reis of Willow Hill, who stopped in Cavaletto's hometown of Salem to campaign for a southern Illinois jobs plan.

Cavaletto argues Granberg has contributed to an unfriendly business environment and has no real plan for job growth because he has supported Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich's fiscal policies, including fees levied on businesses.

"[Granberg's] been there for 20 years, and I don't know of any major plants that's come in here with him," Cavaletto says. "I'm not blaming him for businesses leaving, but I just wonder how much he's done to protect those businesses staying here."

A similar accusation appeared in a published letter to the editor of the local Centralia newspaper, causing Granberg to laugh. "What they want to do is make my name Kurt Madigan-Blagojevich."

Despite being an assistant majority leader and a Democratic negotiator, Granberg defends his voting record by saying he has had to go toe-to-toe with the speaker to protect the district. Most recently, he argued for a troubled, six-year project to bring a coal mine and gasification plant to Jefferson County. The plant aims to convert polluting Illinois coal into clean-burning synthetic gas, which would then be sold to utility companies. 

Granberg says he had to defend his legislation late in the session because Madigan disagreed with the way prices were to be set for the product. "Not all of it was pleasant," he says of his meeting with Madigan. "He and I had words. I don't see my opponent doing that with Tom Cross."

Granberg says the gasification plant is back on track and stands to benefit from a better energy market compared to six years ago. "Now we're on the brink of a major, major comeback," he says.

In the meantime, he says, time spent in Chicago meeting with potential investors has sparked interest in the district.

"I'm bringing Chicago here," he says. "I'm bringing capital and resources here."

With about $368,000 total in his campaign fund at the end of June, Granberg was well ahead of Cavaletto's $28,000.

The northwest suburbs have become dangerous waters for incumbent Republicans.

Parke's district, House 44, is surrounded by districts held by other Republicans, but the Senate district encompassing his area is up for grabs. Former state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger vacated his seat in Senate District 22 to make an unsuccessful bid for higher office. The northwest suburbs could follow the south suburban districts, which have transitioned to Democratic control.

"The overriding theme outside of the south suburbs is the original Republican powerhouses are now gone," says Paul Green, director of policy studies at 

Chicago's Roosevelt University. "With them are a lot of the voters who are straight Republicans, dyed-in-the-wool Republicans, overwhelmingly Republicans."

Parke, a former insurance agent, will face a former People's Energy employee. Fred Crespo now is a real estate agent and a Hoffman Estates village trustee who got elected to the nonpartisan seat with Republican support three years ago. Because of that, he drew criticism when he registered as a Democrat to run against Parke.

Crespo, a Hispanic, calls himself a fresh face, a fiscal conservative and a social moderate. At a campaign stop in July, he said being a multicultural American gives him the listening skills to bridge gaps among different groups, key for an increasingly diverse population.

In the late 1980s, Parke represented House District 49, which had 58,000 residents, less than 4 percent of them Hispanic. As a result of redistricting and suburban sprawl, the current 44th District represents more than 77,000 people, about 12 percent of them Hispanic. That's not counting the influx of other ethnic groups, including those from Asia and Poland. Nor does that count the number of undocumented immigrants.

Parke spoke to that issue at his annual health expo for seniors this summer in Hoffman Estates. He said one of the most difficult challenges in a diversifying district is finding advocates to reach the "silent minority," especially in rural areas.

The second-hardest challenge is in representing that diverse population 200 miles south in the state Capitol. For instance, Parke says he had to vote in accordance with 86 percent of his constituents who responded to a survey. They wanted him to oppose a measure that would grant driver's licenses to eligible immigrants.

"You have to be responsive to your base," he says. "And if you give up your base, you're out of office."

Crespo says Parke has already lost touch with voters. For instance, he says addressing inequality in education requires a regional approach. He suggests forming a suburban caucus to learn how to rectify disparity between the area's rich and poor schools. 

"I don't have to go all the way to south Chicago to see disparity in funding," he said that July afternoon. "I see it here."

He stopped by Parke's senior health expo shortly before the event closed and shook hands with as many people as he could, then said he considers politics a business based on relationships.

"You can't sit in Springfield and look across the aisle and see an enemy," he said after everyone left. "Middle ground is where it's at."

Parke and Crespo offer similar approaches to suburban issues. They both say they support protecting private property owners' rights, state-sponsored health insurance for children and in-state tuition for students of undocumented parents. They also both oppose using special earmarked funds to pad the state's general revenue fund.

Parke, who's capable of raising more money as an incumbent, reported at the end of June having $124,111 available to spend. Crespo, on the other hand, reported having $4,571 available.

Voters can expect more state party cash to be tossed into this and a handful of other competitive races in the next two months. 

"That's going to be a very big, expensive contest," Green says of House 44. "There are so few competitive races that the leaders can throw tons and tons of money, and it's a question of how many dollars these leaders want to throw at these races."

 


Spotlight 

Plowing two fields

The constant stream of cell-phone calls, community calendars and legislative duties keeps state lawmakers busy when they're not in Springfield, but only a few are beholden to one uncontrollable stressor: the weather.

"I lay awake at night, wishing it would rain," says Rep. Donald Moffitt, a Gilson Republican. 

Moffitt is one of only 10 lawmakers who still farms, manages a farm or raises livestock as a part-time job. Nine are GOP representatives: Moffitt, Rich Brauer of Petersburg, Rich Myers of Colchester, Raymond Poe of Springfield, Robert Pritchard of Sycamore, David Reis of Willow Hill, Jim Sacia of Pecatonica, Ronald Wait of Belvidere and Dave Winters of Shirland. Sen. John Sullivan of Rushville is the only Democrat still serving who farms. Former Rep. Art Tenhouse of Liberty tends to his family's centennial farm in Adams County, but he retired from the legislature this summer.

One of the last Democratic farmers was Charles Hartke, an 18-year representative from Teutopolis, who left the legislature to become director of the Illinois Department of Agriculture.

None of the current lawmakers depend on farming for income. Spring session keeps them in Springfield until the end of May, so they miss the ideal planting time of late March or early April. And their summers are spent campaigning or drafting bills for the next session — all while ensuring they have enough cash flow to cover the cost of equipment and fertilizer.

Winters, who farms near Rockford, sold most of his equipment when he joined the legislature in 1995. "Growing 200 acres of corn and soybeans, you can't compete profitwise with the full-time farmers," he says. "So I was looking for an alternative crop that would fit the legislative calendar."

He found a profitable market in prairie grass, which he originally started planting in the 1980s as part of a federal initiative to reduce the oversupply of corn and preserve wildlife habitat. Now he farms about 250 acres, half corn and soybeans, half prairie grass.

"They're perennial crops. So once the field is established, I don't have to plant it again the next year, which works perfectly for the legislative schedule," Winters says. 

In the fall, he harvests, dries, cleans and tests the seed. Then he finds a way to sell it, which he can do on his way to and from Springfield.

His 70 acres of switchgrass offer even more possibilities. Switchgrass is a biomass feedstock that can be burned as energy to replace coal. It also can be converted into a type of ethanol that emits lower levels of greenhouse gases and produces more energy than corn ethanol.

Poe, who still farms 1,800 acres of corn and soybeans and custom farms another 500 acres with his son Lance Poe, says the remaining grain farmers grow a lot more acres with a lot less manpower.

"Automation has sort of taken over," he says. "You farm your ground so much faster that you don't have to have all the labor we used to have."

Few still raise animals.

Brauer, elected in 2002, had a pork operation that used to sell 50,000 finished hogs a year. He still has about 110 acres of corn and soybeans that are farmed by tenants, but he sold his family farm last year because of a string of low pork prices. 

"Do I miss the smells?" he laughs. He could go without that.

A current pork producer is Reis, a fifth-generation farmer in Jasper County who supplemented his income during college by selling sows and wheat. He and his brother still raise 10,000 hogs a year, but they stopped the cattle operation in the 1990s and now specialize in one part of hog farming. He says the profit margins are thin enough that any drought, flood or disease could cost too much to recover.

"I remember grandma telling stories that it never mattered what happened, they always made it through. You can't do that anymore. Just paying for your health insurance now and cars and college educations and home improvements, it takes money. It's hard to just suck it up and make do."

Moffitt says farming keeps him awake at night, but it's a way of life. He manages 600 acres of corn and soybeans in Knox County with his son, Justin Moffitt. "I like to have him check to see who can keep the straightest rows," he jokes.

In his briefcase is a three-by-five card with a quote by Andrew Sloan Draper, president of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign at the turn of the 20th century.

Moffitt recites it from memory. "The wealth of Illinois is in her soil, and her strength lies in its intelligent development." 

"That was true when it was said decades ago, but is true today." 

 

 

 

Key legislative races

Senate

22nd District: Billie Diane Roth (R-Streamwood) vs. Michael Noland (D-Elgin). This is a fight for the seat held by former Sen. Steve Rauschenberger, an Elgin Republican, in an increasingly diverse district. Noland ran a very close race against Republican Rep. Ruth Munson for the 43rd House seat in 2004. He lost by a mere 49.2 percent to 50.8 percent.

27th District: Matt Murphy (R-Palatine) vs. Peter Gutzmer (D-Hoffman Estates). This is another open seat formerly held by Republican Sen. Wendell Jones of Palatine, who won a close race in 2002 with 59.9 percent of the vote against Democrat Michael Harry Minton of Inverness.

30th District: Incumbent Terry Link (D-Waukegan) vs. Charles Fitzgerald (R-North Chicago). Link beat Fitzgerald with 58.5 percent of the vote in 2002, holding on to the seat he gained in an upset win in '96.

31st District: Suzanne Simpson (R-Grayslake) vs. Michael Bond (D-Grayslake). This seat, open for the first time since 1979, has been held by Republican Sen. Adeline Geo-Karis of Zion. It's a predominantly Republican district with an increasing Hispanic population.

33rd District: Freshman Cheryl Axley (R-Mount Prospect) vs. Dan Kotowski (D-Park Ridge). Axley ran unopposed in the primaries, but a surprising number of Democrats voted in a tight Democratic primary race.

46th District: Dave Koehler (D-Peoria) vs. Ernest Russell (R-Peoria). Another open seat, vacated by Democratic Sen. George Shadid of Peoria, is surrounded by two other key House races.

52nd District: Judith Myers (R-Danville) vs. Michael Frerichs (D-Gifford) vs. Joseph Parnarauskis (Socialist Equality-Westville). This open Senate seat was vacated by Republican Sen. Rick Winkel of Champaign.

House

46th District: Dennis Reboletti (R-Elmhurst) vs. Joe Vosicky (D-Elmhurst). This is a seat that was vacated by Republican Rep. Lee Daniels of Elmhurst, who beat Vosicky with 62.8 percent to 37.2 percent in 2004.

62nd District: Sandy Cole (R-Grayslake) vs. Sharyn Elman (D-Quincy). Elman ran a close race against Republican incumbent Rep. Robert Churchill of Lake Villa in 2004. Churchill won with 53.6 percent to Elman's 46.4 percent, but Churchill vacated the seat this year.

75th District: Incumbent Careen Gordon (D-Morris) vs. Jason Briscoe (R-Minooka). Gordon narrowly won in 2004 against Republican Doug Hayse and is seen as vulnerable again this year.

92nd District: Freshman Aaron Schock (R-Peoria) vs. Bill Spears (D-Peoria). Schock shocked the predominantly Democratic district by beating incumbent Rep. Ricca Slone of Peoria Heights in 2004, and he's proved to be quite a fundraiser ever since. 

91st District: Incumbent Michael Smith (D-Canton) vs. Daryl Dagit (R-Pekin). Smith's vote for a civil rights bill, aimed at preventing housing and employment discrimination based on sexual orientation, could serve as ammunition for Dagit, a conservative.

101st District: Incumbent Bob Flider (D-Mount Zion) vs. Dick Cain (R-Decatur). Flider faced a brutal race in 2004 against TV reporter Scot England of Sullivan, leaving room for Cain to build on the Republican momentum if he can raise the cash.

Bethany Carson

 

Ebb and flow

House District 93 in rural west central Illinois is up for grabs after 17-year incumbent Republican Rep. Art Tenhouse of Liberty announced his retirement this summer.

That race had been one of the hottest contests until mid-August, when the Democratic candidate dropped out. Former Quincy Mayor Chuck Scholz withdrew from the race because of serious illness. "Right now I'm in the most important campaign I've ever embarked on," Scholz told the Quincy Herald-Whig the day he announced his need to focus on his health.

The announcement was made shortly before Illinois Issues went to press.  Democratic chairs of each county central committee had until September 1 to nominate a new candidate. 

House Republican campaign spokesman David Dring says Scholz was a serious contender against the GOP nominee Jil Tracy of Mount Sterling, and his departure is likely to dim that party's spotlight on the race.

The agricultural area extending east of the Mississippi River leans Republican, but the GOP experienced an upset when incumbent Sen. John Sullivan, a Rushville Democrat, snagged a surprise win in 2002 over Senate Republican Caucus Chair Laura Kent Donahue of Quincy.

Tracy is serving the remainder of Tenhouse's term. At the end of June, she reported raising $23,250. (Counting party contributions, Scholz had more than $32,500 on hand by the end of June.)  

Tracy is a lawyer who has worked for former Republican Attorney General Jim Ryan and Democratic Attorney General Lisa Madigan. She also served as Mount Sterling's city attorney and was appointed by former Gov. Jim Edgar to the Juvenile Corrections Board. 

Republicans hope her family connections to a major employer in the area, Mount Sterling-based DOT Foods distribution company, will appeal to local business owners, Dring says.

Her campaign echoes the GOP focus on fiscal responsibility. She released an economic plan that would offer tax credits as an incentive to create jobs, which resembles a proposal by Republican gubernatorial contender Judy Baar Topinka.

Tracy also wants the state to stop borrowing, delaying Medicaid payments and underfunding its public employee pension systems.

"People are very dissatisfied with state government, whether it be this administration or the previous administration," she says. "They feel we put partisan politics before the needs of the people."

Bethany Carson

Legislative 
campaign strategies

The state GOP will have to combat dissatisfaction with President George W. Bush by campaigning on fiscal responsibility and highlighting the fact that no Illinois Republican voted for the current state budget crafted by Democrats.

"We feel that the citizens of Illinois are pretty smart," says David Dring, spokesman for the House Republican campaign. "They have to balance their household budgets. You can't just not pay a pension payment and continue to spend money that you don't have."

The state GOP also is likely to call for ethical government, an attempt to rebound from the corruption conviction of former Republican Gov. George Ryan.

The perception that Illinois government struggles ethically also challenges the state's Democrats, as federal investigators have probed the hiring and contracting practices of Gov. Rod Blagojevich's administration. 

Downstate Democrats, in particular, also must battle the perception that incumbents serve as political pawns for Chicago Democratic leadership.

The allegation that downstate Democrats vote blindly with the big fish in Chicago, says Steve Brown, spokesman for the House Democratic campaign, is hypocrisy. "When it fits their purpose, they'll make reference to Chicago. But when it doesn't, it's the boogieman."

Brown says running grassroots campaigns and welcoming diversity have proved successful for the party in the past. 

 

Bethany Carson

Illinois Issues, September 2006

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