STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Alexander Vindman is with us next. He's a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who served as director for European affairs and was the top Ukraine expert on the National Security Council during the first Trump administration. Welcome to the program, sir.
ALEXANDER VINDMAN: Thank you, Steve. And good morning to you and your wonderful listeners.
INSKEEP: Excellent. Well, what do you make of President Zelenskyy's approach here, saying, for example, sure, we can talk about giving up territory if there is a vote first.
VINDMAN: It is quite savvy. I think this paired along with the response to Donald Trump calling for elections is a good approach that a Democratic leader should take, bringing the matter to his people and having his population weigh in on both the elections and this territorial swap, or giving away territory. He feels quite comfortable based on the fact that he's got data that his population is not willing to sacrifice critical pieces of territory central to Ukraine's defense at this time because Ukraine is not losing on the battlefield.
INSKEEP: Let's talk that part through. You say Ukraine is not losing on the battlefield. They have certainly lost thousands and thousands of people. What is the situation right now?
VINDMAN: If you're looking at the tactical battlefield, Russians are gaining ground. But they're doing it at an exceptionally high cost. This year in 2025, they've been fighting for one particular city, Pokrovsk. Before the war, there was a population of about 30,000. They have not yet taken this one city at the cost of tens of thousands of killed and wounded. Really, if you look at the aggregate of all of Russia's war efforts this year, it's hundreds of thousands with really nothing to show for.
Now, the Ukrainians have given up small tracts of territory. But that's part of their strategy. They're trading space for time. The bigger part of this battlefield is that the Russians are punishing energy, utilities, water. And the Ukrainians are punishing Russia's money mill, which is energy and gas. So it looks a lot more kind of static and at equilibrium at those echelons. If you're only looking at the tactical battlefield, it looks like Russia is winning. But that's a mistake to look in that one spot.
INSKEEP: Russia has lost enormous casualties on the battlefield. But whenever I think about that, I think about the history of that country in World War II and World War I, and the Crimean war. As far back as you want, the Russian military culture was not to care about military casualties. Are they anywhere near the point where they would have to care about their losses?
VINDMAN: I think they do care about their casualties from kind of a regime stability standpoint. And if they have to go to mass mobilizations, that's internally destabilizing. So I think the fact is that, you know, this is not inexhaustible resource for Russia. And you referenced some of the long wars that Russia has engaged in. Three years, roughly, before Russia was forced out of World War I. In World War II, we're really talking about, in earnest fighting against the Nazis, we're talking about a three-, four-year war. We're about to hit the four-year corner on this war.
The biggest benefits to Russia right now are the fact that they have a true ally, in a lot of regards, with the Trump administration that is sowing enormous chaos amongst alliances, that is backing away from traditional friends, that is putting maximum pressure on Ukraine, forcing Ukraine to try to take this capitulation, really, shaped as an ultimatum. And that it pays to endure. But if they don't see any additional benefits, if the Europeans are starting to consolidate and they're there in Ukraine's corridor no matter what, that's a different calculation. That's something that Putin is going to have to price in.
INSKEEP: I want to follow up on describing the Trump administration as an ally of Russia. I understand why you would say that. And yet, it seems Russia keeps not doing what the Trump administration would like, declining to go where the Trump administration wants to nudge them.
VINDMAN: I think that the Trump administration is a big ally in that it's sowing this chaos on the international stage and amongst the traditional alliance structure, that it's willing to put enormous pressure on Ukraine, at the same time, not providing much in the way of aid. Just think about this national security strategy that was released this week and how the Russians say that we can work with this - there's a lot here - this aligns with our worldview. That they're happy with the spheres of influence.
It doesn't mean that they have to - you know, that they're going to get everything that they want. And mainly because it's the Europeans and the Ukrainians that are saying, no, this is dangerous to our national security. This is dangerous to our survival. It's not just about the Russians and Trump. It's about these other power blocs. And I think while Russia finds a lot of like-minded, aligned thinking, these other centers do not.
INSKEEP: Retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman. Thanks so much for your time.
VINDMAN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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