The following is an analysis from the University of Illinois Springfield Center for State Policy and Research.
As voters head to the polls for tomorrow's midterm elections, the economy and cost of living remain central issues shaping the political landscape. National polling consistently finds that Americans are concerned about rising costs, with at least 70% disapproving of President Trump's handling of the cost of living, inflation, and the economy, according to recent ABC News/Ipsos polling.
We wanted to better understand how Illinois voters view the economy as they prepare to vote in the state's gubernatorial and other midterm elections. To do so, we surveyed a representative sample of registered Illinois voters between October 1 and October 19, 2026. The survey was funded by the Institute for Government and Public Affairs and the Center for State Policy and Leadership at the University of Illinois Springfield.
We focus our analysis on the overall attitudes of Illinois voters with a focus on partisanship. We do this for two reasons. First, political science research has extensively looked at how partisan attitudes, especially affective partisanship, shapes assessments of the economy. Second, the midterm elections are partisan elections, largely focused on races that are between candidates belonging to the two major parties.
We first asked voters to evaluate the state of the economy at three levels: nationally, in Illinois, and within their own households. Across all three measures, fewer than 40% of voters gave a positive assessment. Voters were most positive about their own economic situations (38%), compared with the Illinois economy (26%) and the national economy (25%).
Cost | % Positive Overall | % Positive Democrat | % Positive Republican |
US Economy | 25% | 11% | 44% |
Illinois Economy | 26% | 32% | 19% |
Own Economic Situation | 38% | 32% | 46% |
These generally negative assessments extend across party lines, although Republicans are considerably more positive about the national economy than Democrats. Nearly half of Republicans (44%) rated the national economy positively, compared with just 11% of Democrats. Interestingly, Republicans were less positive about the Illinois economy (19%) than Democrats (32%). Both groups were the most positive, with no partisan group reaching a majority though, with their household economic situation as 46% of Republicans and 32% of Democrats giving a positive assessment of their household finances.
We also asked voters the impact of multiple household costs on their level of stress. Specifically, we asked respondents whether each cost represented a "major source of stress", a “minor source of stress”, or “not a source of stress” for their household.
The results suggest there are widespread concerns for the cost of living in a couple of key household cost areas. Nearly two-thirds of voters (62%) identified gasoline as a major source of stress, followed by groceries (57%), housing (51%), and health care (50%). Electricity was also a significant concern, with 44% identifying it as a major source of stress.
Partisan dynamics highlight some interesting results as the largest partisan differences were in groceries and health care. In both areas Democrats were much more likely than Republicans to say the costs were a major point of stress. Notably though, there were similar rates for electricity, suggesting that while other costs may be influenced by partisan perceptions, electricity may not be.
Cost | % Major Stress Overall | % Major Stress Democrat | % Major Stress Republican |
Groceries | 57% | 63% | 49% |
Health Care | 50% | 56% | 43% |
Electricity | 44% | 44% | 42% |
Housing | 51% | 56% | 45% |
Gasoline | 62% | 65% | 58% |
Given the attention paid to inflation and rising costs in political discussions, we asked voters to identify the three factors they believe are most responsible for increasing prices. We see some notable areas of partisan disagreement and, perhaps surprisingly, agreement.
Overall, tariffs and trade restrictions (47%) and government fraud and overspending (47%) were the most frequently selected causes of rising costs by respondents. Following closely behind those two though were wealthy elites and billionaires shaping the economy in their favor (46%), politicians enriching themselves (46%), and large corporations raising prices to increase profits (44%).
Cost | % Responsible Overall | % Responsible Democrat | % Responsible Republican |
Tariff and trade restrictions | 47% | 59% | 30% |
Big corporations raising prices to boost profits | 44% | 46% | 43% |
Government fraud and overspending | 47% | 42% | 54% |
Wealthy elites and billionaires shaping the economy in their favor | 46% | 58% | 29% |
Global events like wars and the pandemic | 42% | 47% | 37% |
Politicians enriching themselves | 46% | 40% | 43% |
Too much government regulation | 21% | 10% | 29% |
Immigration policies that reduce the number of people available to do certain jobs | 16% | 10% | 22% |
Democrats were nearly twice as likely as Republicans to blame tariffs and trade restrictions (59% versus 30%). They were similarly more likely to point to wealthy elites and billionaires shaping the economy in their favor (58% versus 29%). Republicans, meanwhile, were more likely to identify government fraud and overspending (54% versus 42%) and excessive government regulation (29% versus 10%).
Perhaps more interesting, however, are the areas where Democrats and Republicans agree. Similar percentages of both groups identified large corporations raising prices to increase profits (46% of Democrats and 43% of Republicans) and politicians enriching themselves (40% and 43%, respectively). This suggests some areas where voters across both parties may agree on actions to address corporate pricing practices and political corruption.
Lastly, we asked voters about their household's economic outlook over the next 12 months. Specifically, respondents were asked whether they expected it to become easier or harder for their household to afford regular monthly expenses.
Cost | % Overall | % Democrat | % Republican |
Get Easier | 14% | 8% | 21% |
Stay the Same | 34% | 28% | 43% |
Get Harder | 50% | 59% | 35% |
Unsure | 3% | 4% | 1% |
The results suggest considerable pessimism about the year ahead. Half of Illinois voters (50%) expect it will become harder to afford their regular monthly expenses, compared with just 14% who expect it will become easier. Another 34% anticipate that their financial situation will remain about the same.
These expectations differ considerably by political affiliation. Nearly six in ten Democrats (59%) expect it will become harder to afford their monthly expenses, compared with 35% of Republicans. Republicans are more likely to think that their economic situation will change for the better or worse (43% versus 28%) or become easier (21% versus 8%).
In total then, our findings suggest that many Illinois voting households are experiencing real financial stress from their everyday expenses, have a negative view of the economy regardless of what level, and identify multiple causes for their economic struggles. We also find that the largest group of voters report their expectation is that their economic situation will become more difficult in the next year.
Considering the role the economy is playing in voter decision making nationwide heading into the midterms, something political observers may want to keep an eye on is the role of economic attitudes like those covered here in the results of elections here in Illinois.
*This data will be available on IGPA’s data hub in the future.
