Changing political parties may have seemed like an obvious decision for state Rep. Paul Froehlich. In 2006, the Schaumburg lawmaker was a Republican who had led local party groups for years. But he watched his veteran colleague, state Rep. Terry Parke, lose to a Democrat and end his 22-year legislative career.
That Democrat was Rep. Fred Crespo of Hoffman Estates. However, Crespo had earlier been elected as a local official with GOP support, including help from Republican Froehlich. Now Crespo is in the middle of his first term serving a district in the northwest Chicago suburbs that borders Froehlich's.
Those party swaps reflect a trend in the changing Chicago suburbs. Long known for their red-state Republican politics, these districts have been steeped in blue by demographic shifts.
U.S. Census numbers show that in Schaumburg, part of which Crespo represents, nearly 1,000 Latinos and 1,000 African Americans moved in between 2000 and 2006. In that time, the village's total population went up by about 2,000 people, according to the American Community Survey.
Forty percent of Froehlich's district voted for Democrat Rod Blagojevich for governor in 2002, but it gave 49 percent to U.S. Sen. John Kerry in 2004 — hardly Republican stronghold numbers.
The area is becoming a purple haze, and a challenge to Republican incumbents. While Illinois House Republicans lost only one incumbent in the 2006 elections, the Senate lost five — four from the Chicago suburbs.
As a Republican, Froehlich would be reasonable to wonder: Am I next?
He switched political parties and became a Democrat in June 2007. He says because Democrats have strong majorities in the Illinois House and the Senate, he can get more done as a member of the majority party.
"I mean, for the first time after I switched, I was able to get a meeting with the governor," the Cook County resident says. "I think the potential there is to get more done because you're in the same party as the people who run my county and control state government."
While Froehlich's district may be evolving, he enters the party at a peculiar time. The reputation of Democrats throughout this blue state may have been beaten black and blue by its own top leaders.
Polls suggest that Democratic Gov. Blagojevich's approval ratings sank after the summer when he and top lawmakers spent months in unprecedented and well-publicized gridlock. Lawmakers left Springfield after accomplishing little more than approving their own pay raises.
Instead of capitalizing on Democratic trends in one of the country's bluest states, Froehlich now faces an opponent in the primary election next month. If Froehlich survives that, he'll likely face a well-funded Republican who could try to tie him to months of Democratic bungling.
But his party does have a substantial advantage of 67 Democrats to 51 Republicans in the House, and the state's legislative boundaries were drawn to protect incumbents.
In addition, several House Republicans plan to retire or seek other offices, possibly sparking up-for-grabs campaigns that will draw the attention and the funding of both political parties. Among the retirees are GOP Reps. Bill Black of Danville, Joseph Dunn of Naperville, Patricia Lindner of Aurora and James Meyer of Bolingbrook. Rep. Aaron Schock of Peoria is leaving his state office in hopes of replacing Republican U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood in Congress.
The challenge for the GOP appears nearly insurmountable in the Senate. Democrats in that chamber hold a strong 37-22 advantage. That gives them enough votes — if they stick together — for a three-fifths supermajority to override the governor's vetoes or approve major spending plans without GOP support.
While Senate Democrats could struggle to build on their majority, Republicans' daunting task includes the retirements of Republican Sens. Todd Sieben of Geneseo and William Peterson of Long Grove.
Going into the 2008 race, experts and lawmakers say the GOP's best chance to make up for past weaknesses is to tie their opponents to Blagojevich and his recent unpopularity.
Democrats might be wise to stick with the strategy that granted them statewide control in the first place — defending their majority and making occasional inroads when opportunity beckons.
The 2008 Republican strategy may mirror one that was used against them in the national races for Congress just two years earlier. The mounting frustration over American deaths in the war in Iraq and Afghanistan drove many voters to oust the congressional leadership. In 2006, Democrats rode that tidal wave for the party nationally, sweeping Republicans from control. With well-funded polls backing them, Democrats across the country employed similar strategies: No matter how moderate or independent the Republican opponent, use mailers, broadcast ads — whatever means — to get the opponent's name in the same sentence with President George W. Bush, who has sagging approval ratings.
Illinois' current political atmosphere could generate similar voter discontent, opening the door for the state GOP. Blagojevich's reputation began to dip when, in early 2007, he proposed one of the largest tax increases in state history, while Democrats struggled to assuage outrage over rising electric bills.
Residents in longtime state Rep. Kurt Granberg's territory felt the heat. The 107th District encompasses a swath of southern Illinois that he says has been hard hit by a dearth of economic development and job opportunities.
The rising cost of gas and electricity has left many of the residents struggling to pay bills.
Granberg chose not to stick around to ride out Republican criticism. He recently announced he won't run for re-election and is expecting an appointment in the Blagojevich Administration. But before choosing not to file for re-election, he anticipated a brutal campaign.
"My name will be Kurt Blagojevich, and I will love illegal immigrants," he said before bowing out.
That prediction also could foreshadow trouble Democrats might get from their Republican opponents over a highly controversial proposal to let undocumented immigrants get driving certificates. The measure failed, but 60 lawmakers are on record as supporting the effort.
Granberg voted to support the measure, a reflection of how he differs from political leanings in the area. He served in the House for 20 years despite being surrounded by districts represented by Republicans. In 2004, his district voted about 58 percent in favor of Bush.
The 2006 election gave Granberg a scare. He won by fewer than 200 votes, but not before spending more than $1.1 million during the cycle, according to the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform, a nonpartisan research and advocacy group based in Chicago.
His Republican opponent, John Cavaletto, spent a whopping $775,000 and plans to run again. Cavaletto partly blames his 2006 loss on the Democratic momentum that swept the country. He also lost in 2002 and says the federal corruption conviction of former Gov. George Ryan, a Republican, hurt him then.
"I think it's about time your own party stopped beating you," Cavaletto says.
He says he's hoping the third time is the charm, while realizing that it could be three strikes and you're out. Two Democrats will try to take on Cavaletto to succeed Granberg.
John Jackson, an analyst with the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University, says the time is now for the GOP to capitalize on voter apathy about the state's Democrats.
"The Democrats have been given their chance," he says.
Despite the party's bruised reputation, some say it's still possible Illinois Democrats could catch a second wind. They have another chance with the 2008 legislative session leading up to Election Day.
That chance rests with a long-awaited capital bill, which would allocate billions of dollars for new roads, bridges, schools, prisons and universities — and give Democrats an added political boost.
Big construction projects mean lots of ribbon cuttings and positive local press. Ribbon cuttings also mean jobs. And jobs for laborers could mean campaign contributions from the unions that bolster Democratic campaign coffers across the state.
Despite Blagojevich's push for health care and Senate President Emil Jones Jr.'s emphasis on education reform, the capital bill moved into the spotlight this year, at least in part because an interstate bridge collapsed in Minnesota and sparked reports of poor bridge quality in Illinois.
But like most other spending plans launched by legislators in 2007, there was widespread disagreement about how to pay for it. Lawmakers would have to sign off on a large gambling plan to pay for the Blagojevich-Jones construction proposal.
At the same time, incumbents from both parties likely love the idea of bringing home the bacon in an election year.
Even without a capital bill, however, a Republican takeover of Illinois in 2008 probably faces long odds, Jackson says.
Along the Illinois River, state Rep. Schock's vacated seat could be an attractive one for Illinois Democrats.
The 92nd District includes Peoria and is home to the blue-collar city's legion of manufacturing workers. Those workers, and the minority groups who live in one of downstate's biggest metropolitan areas, lean Democratic. In the 2004 presidential election, 60 percent of the voters in the district cast a "yes" vote for Democrat Kerry.
Schock is leaving the Illinois House in an attempt to replace LaHood in Congress.
In 2004, Schock upset Democrat Ricca Slone to win his state seat. He spent $650,000 on that bid, according to records of the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform. Slone spent more, nearly $900,000. Still, Schock prevailed. But he expects a difficult and expensive race to replace him in the Illinois House.
"I don't think that it will be the walk in the park that some suggest," Schock says. He adds that while it's not impossible for a Republican to win again, the nominee will have to reach out to such groups as African Americans and labor unions that are typically courted by Democrats but supported Schock.
"They like the fact that I work hard and am responsive to them," he says.
Lining up for the seat is Republican Cindy Ardis-Jenkins, who has worked for Schock and is the sister of Peoria Mayor Jim Ardis. On the Democratic side, Peoria County Board member Allen Mayer and Illinois Central College diversity coordinator Jehan Gordon have announced bids.
In the northwest suburbs of Chicago, Froehlich, the Republican-turned-Democrat, has to worry about his primary opponent, Democrat John Moynihan, before he can think about a Republican opponent in November.
Hoffman Estates library board member Anita Forte-Scott, who faces a primary challenge herself from Schaumburg Republican Charlotte Kegarise, is hoping to put the district back in the hands of Republicans. And though Froehlich has only been a Democrat for a matter of months, Forte-Scott says it doesn't make any sense to keep adding to the Democratic difficulties by re-electing another one.
"I would put him in that category as far back as [last] year," she says.
She says she plans to target Froehlich's vote for the immigrant driving proposal.
Just next door, Crespo voted "no" on that controversial plan to let immigrants get driver's certificates. Crespo faces Schaumburg school board member and Republican Peggy Brothman.
Brothman says she was asked by Democrats more than a year ago to switch parties and follow Crespo's path.
"Democrats asked me," she says.
"I chose not to change parties because I think that's confusing to voters."
In facing re-election, Crespo says his biggest concern isn't being tied to the Democratic missteps of 2007. Rather, he says, the long legislative battles kept him from helping — and getting face-time — with his constituents. "It's unfortunate we've spent so much time in Springfield this year," he said in November.
Republicans and Democrats struggled throughout the 2007 legislative session. Because Froehlich was in both corners of the ring in that time, he can expect unique challenges in the 2008 election season.
While dozens of other lawmakers will go unchallenged for their seats, Froehlich, at least partly because of his party swap, is one of the few who can expect tough races in both the February primary and the November general election.
"Anytime you have an opponent that's going to have lots of money and resources," he says, "it's a real challenge."
The pool of voters who could be swayed to vote for someone of a different political party is limited, says Jackson. In his recent study, Party Competition in Illinois: Republican Prospects in a Blue State, he suggests that loyalties are strong with both parties, leaving few votes up for grabs.
In addition, most lawmakers will run for re-election in 2008 either unopposed or challenged by candidates who lack the campaign cash to put up a good fight.
For that reason, both parties likely will focus millions of dollars and dozens of staff members on a handful of races. House Speaker Michael Madigan and House Republican Leader Tom Cross, who are considered safe in their re-election bids, will pick their battles and direct the campaign cash into more vulnerable districts throughout the state.
"The leaders don't really necessarily have to worry about their next re-election, but they do have to worry about maintaining their majority or keeping their majority or building on a majority," state Comptroller Dan Hynes said at an October meeting. "And that'll be difficult for the Democrats to do if a year from now they can't say, 'We deserve to be in power.'"
Key legislative races
In some cases, Democrats and Republicans are likely to target vacated seats for victory because there's no incumbent who has the advantage of name recognition. Here's a list of the legislators who announced their retirements and the candidates trying to replace them:
HOUSE
32nd District
Retiring Milton "Milt" Patterson, a Chicago Democrat
40th District
Running for state Senate Rich Bradley, a Chicago Democrat; possible replacement: Democrat Deborah Mell of Chicago
48th District
Retiring Jim Meyer, a Bolingbrook Republican; possible replacements: Republicans Dave Carlin of Naperville, Michael Connelly of Lisle and Douglas Krause of Naperville
50th District
Retiring Patricia Reid Lindner, an Aurora Republican; possible replacements: Democrat Mary Schneider of Batavia and Republicans Anton Graff of Yorkville, Kay Hatcher of Yorkville, Terry Hunt of Big Rock and David Richmond of Batavia
66th District
Retiring Carolyn Krause, a Mount Prospect Republican; possible replacements: Democrat Mark Walker of Arlington Heights and Republicans Laura Bartell of Arlington Heights and Christine Prochno of Elk Grove Village
92nd District
Running for Congress Aaron Schock, a Peoria Republican; possible replacements: Democrats Allen Mayer of Peoria and Jehan Gordon of Peoria and Republican Cindy Ardis Jenkins of Peoria
96th District
Retiring Joseph Dunn, a Naperville Republican; possible replacements: Democrat Dianne McGuire of Naperville and Republicans Michael Bolwer of Aurora and Darlene Senger of Naperville
104th District
Retiring Bill Black, a Danville Republican; possible replacements: Republicans Terry Baldwin of Danville and Scott Eisenhauer of Danville
107th District
Retiring Kurt Granberg, a Carlyle Democrat who hopes to join the Blagojevich Administration; possible replacements: Democrats Patti Hahn of Centralia, Travis Loyd of Mt. Vernon and Republican John Cavaletto of Salem
SENATE
7th District
Retiring Carol Ronen, a Chicago Democrat joining the Blagojevich Administration; possible replacements: Democrats Heather Steans of Chicago and Suzanne Elder of Chicago
26th District
Retiring William Peterson, a Long Grove Republican; possible replacements: Democrats Bill Gentes of Round Lake and Richard Hammes of North Barrington and Republican Dan Duffy of Lake Barrington
45th District
Retiring Todd Sieben, a Geneseo Republican; possible replacements: Democrat Marty Mulcahey of Galena and Republican Tim Bivins of Dixon
Note: The State Board of Elections had until December 6 to certify ballots for counties. Because Illinois Issues went to press before that date, some candidates we identify may not appear on the ballot.
ELECTION 2008
For more information about the Legislative race see Illinois Issues, December online 2007.
Mike Riopell is a Statehouse reporter for Lee Enterprises.
Illinois Issues, January 2008
