Russian President Vladimir Putin called his first summit with President Trump a success, but warned Thursday that Trump’s opponents in the U.S. are hampering any progress on what they discussed, such as limiting their nuclear arsenals.
Here & Now‘s Jeremy Hobson speaks with former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz (@ErnestMoniz), co-chair of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, about the Trump-Putin summit and what it could mean for nuclear dialogue.
“TheperformanceinHelsinkiwas,ofcourse,veryunsettling,shallwesay,ataminimum.Inparticular,theideathatthepresidentwouldelevatePutininreliabilityaboveourintelligenceagencieswassimplyunconscionable,” he says. “Still,wearehoping, especiallyontheissueofnuclearweaponsandnuclearproliferation,somethingcancomeoutofthis.”
Interview Highlights
On the New START treaty between Russia and the U.S.
“TheNewSTARTtreatydoesputacaponstrategicweapons,butveryimportantly,italsoprovidestransparencyandconfidence-buildingmeasures.Andinfact,ifweallowthattreatytolapsein2021,itwouldbethefirsttimeinalonglongtimethatRussiaandtheUnitedStates, orSovietUnion andtheUnitedStates, havenothadsuchtransparencymeasures.”
On if the U.S. and Russia will extend New START before it expires in 2021
“Wellfirstofall,wecertainlyshould.AndtheissuesthatPresidentPutinisreferringtoisRussiahasquestionsaboutwhethercertainconversionsofdeliverysystemsareorarenotnuclearcapable.Andbytheway,thereareissuesaswellonwhat’scalledthe [Intermediate-Range]NuclearForcesTreaty,inwhichbothsidesaccusedtheotherofnoncompliance.Inreality,theseareexactlythekindsofquestionswherewhatweneedtodoishaveveryprofessionalmilitary-to-militarycollaborations,inspections,etc.,tocleartheair.Andifonesideisinfactnotincompliance — andfranklyweareverysurethatRussiaisnotincompliancewiththeintermediateforcestreaty — then we find solutions to that.”
On Trump’s argument that it’s better to have a good relationship with Russia
“Well,Iwouldn’tusetheterm ‘goodrelationship.’Idon’tseehowwecanhaveagoodrelationshipinacertainsenseacrosstheboardwithoutresolvingUkraine,Crimea,Syria,electionmeddlingandthelike.Butweneedaprofessionalrelationshipinpursuingourmutualaimsintermsofrisks,andnuclearisNo. 1 inthatcontext.… These two countries — Russia, the United States — we have more than 90 percent of the nuclear weapons, and we feel that the potential for a blunder basically is higher now than it’s been in a very long time. I would say [since] the Cuban missile crisis. I want to emphasize this is not like a reward to Russia as it is often portrayed. This is a hard-nosed discussion based upon mutual interests and preventing what is really the only existential threat that the United States and Russia have [which] is nuclear weapons used by the other side.”
On the likelihood of resolving nuclear issues in North Korea
“Ithinktheadministrationhasnotyetlaidoutwhatitsrealobjectivesareotherthanthissimpleword ‘denuclearization,’whichbythewaythatworditselfissomewhatambiguous. … Itcouldmeanreducing.Itdoesn’tmeaneliminatingciviliannuclearpower,forexample.Thisadministrationkeepssayingtheywantallnuclearweaponsandmaterialsandfacilitiesremovedwithin20months.Ijustdon’tthinkthat’sreasonable,soweneedarationalstrategy.Wealsoneedtohaveamuchmoreactivedialoguewithotherparties — South Korea, obviously, but China, Japan, Russia — than at least we see evidence of publicly. There is no security solution to the Korean Peninsula without having all of those parties engaged, so this is a hard negotiation. As you know, I was involved in the Iran negotiation. North Korea is certainly not simpler than the Iran situation. So I think there’s really tough, hard diplomacy based upon a realistic roadmap that we need to pursue.”
On the U.S. withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal
“Firstofall,IdowanttoemphasizethedealisstillinplaceinthesensethattheEuropeans,Russia,ChinaandIran [are still in compliance]. …TheUnitedStatesisinviolationoftheagreement,bluntly.Andwhat’sespeciallyimportant… is that at the heart of the Iran agreement are the most stringent, unique verification measures that any country operates under. That is what ultimately is the grounding of continued confidence that Iran has not resumed nuclear weapons activity. So that’s the key: Will that verification regime be preserved or not?”
On if withdrawing from the Iran deal had an impact on North Korea
“No. Idothink,however,thattheIrandeal — whethertheUnitedStatesisinitornot — franklyhassetastandardonverificationmeasuresandthatwillbeaverydifficult,hardroadtofollowwithNorthKoreagiventheclosedsociety, etc.,No. 1.No. 2: Given the fact that unlike Iran, North Korea does have nuclear weapons, and as is well known, we really don’t know how many they have. So how are we going to be assured that even if there’s an agreement going forward that they have in fact declared all of their nuclear weapons? At some point, we’re going to need a very intrusive verification regime that will not be easily achieved. Iran sets the standard today.”
On Trump’s criticism that the Iran deal is the “worst deal ever”
“It’sastatementwithoutsubstancewhatsoever.Ithinkwhatyoumightinterpretthistomeanisthatthecomplaintsarefarlesswithwhatthedealis—franklyIseenoneofrealsubstance—it’saboutwhatthedealisnot.Itdoesn’taddressHezbollah.Itdoesn’taddressYemenandSyriaandthelike.Andofcourse, wetookthesame,PresidentObama,tookthesameapproachasIwouldargue,PresidentReagantook.Inthe ‘80s,wehadallkindsofproblemswiththeSovietUnion,proxywarsallovertheplace,andyetthatdidnotpreventafocusontheexistentialthreatofnuclearweaponsandsummitrythere.Sohereagain,itwasthesamething, thatfocus on the existential issue, and of course, keep addressing the other issues.”
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