If Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is looking for a silver lining on his disappointing first round re-election bid, he ought not study Gov. Bruce Rauner’s proposed budget. The state’s largest city has some big problems that the governor’s fiscal plans could aggravate.
Chicago has issues of “looming pension crisis in the city and at the board of education, ongoing problems with guns and gangs and drugs, still a feeling that too many neighborhoods are being neglected and there aren’t enough jobs,” Andy Shaw, head of the non-partisan Better Government Association, said election night.
The governor’s budget could further hog tie the mayor’s efforts to address those issues. Emanuel lost more than 100,000 votes Tuesday — mostly in minority communities — compared to four years ago. He has six weeks to recoup that support or face vacating his City Hall office. Only 34 percent of registered voters turned out for Tuesday’s election, besting only the 33 percent in the 2007 election in which former Mayor Richard M. Daley strolled into a sixth and final term.
The low participation helped prevent Emanuel from getting the 50-percent-plus-one margin he needed to avoid a runoff against second place challenger Jesus “Chuy” Garcia. The mayor will have to recapture that support — and add to it — while also trying to beat back state cuts that could undermine his own plans for the city.
In addressing gun violence, Emanuel relies a lot on youth programs and community organizations. His 2015 budget pumped $1 million more into such efforts. But Rauner has proposed eliminating state funding to organizations like Chicago’s popular After School Matters, which offers a wide range of arts and vocational subjects intended to involve youth, keeping them off the streets. It was started by Maggie Daley, the late wife of Emanuel’s predecessor.
Already the governor’s move in January to stall the Youth Development grant disbursement — along with his and the legislature’s failure so far to fund the remaining FY15 child care subsidy program — has left some minority voters feeling disenfranchised. Now the governor wants to end support for wards of the state as soon as they turn 18. Presently the Department of Children and Family Services eases the transition to independent adulthood for wards between the ages of 18 and 21.
Other assistance programs would also see reductions, like the Low Income Heating and Energy Assistance Program, which helps the low-income residents pay electric and gas bills. These and other suggested budget cuts would do little to help Emanuel court the voters he needs in order to keep his job.
One veteran observer says Emanuel’s vulnerability in Chicago also diminishes his negotiating might in Springfield. It won’t be easy for the mayor to lobby for alternatives to the governor’s plans.
'It significantly weakens his ability to impact the policy discussion.'
“If Emanuel would have gotten more than 50 percent, then he would have been in a position to be a player in Springfield in mitigating some of the cuts,” says Kent Redfield, a retired professor of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield. “It significantly weakens his ability to impact the policy discussion.”
Rauner wants to give municipalities statewide $600 million less of their share of the state income tax through the Local Government Distributive Fund. This could mean a loss of an estimated $135 million for Chicago. The governor’s cash slash to the Regional Transportation Authority by $127 million could mean fare hikes, service cuts or both for Chicago’s public transit system — which is most minority communities’ primary mode of transportation. Further, a successful move by Rauner to eliminate child care payments for children over age six, and to in-home relatives and friends, could complicate Emanuel’s appeal to the city’s working class.
Chicago is also a hotbed for education tension, with the mayor’s office consistently at odds with community groups and the Chicago Teachers Union over public school closures and the overall running of Chicago Public Schools. Garcia’s support includes labor unions, teachers and a number of grassroots community organizations. That, along with Rauner’s plan to cut higher education, and defund education enrichment and outreach programs like Advanced Placement classes and Teach for America, could create roadblocks for Emanuel.
Chicago political consultant Delmarie Cobb says a mayor’s influence over state spending can be important because policy decisions directly affect quality of life. Cobb, who advised three Democratic aldermen in this year’s primary, is not backing the mayor.
“He’ll take advantage of these issues and pretend he’s with the voters, that things matter to him,” Cobb says. “Some of them matter to him because it’s going to directly impact the city budget.”
